The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, Nov. 1, indicates a continued intensification of drought conditions for Kansas. In this area, we are in extreme drought with exceptional drought inching closer. Exceptional drought is in southern Stafford County and most of Pawnee. If this continues, it will be in Western Barton County next week. For comparison, this is worse than 2012 and it is not even close. The six to ten-day outlook (Nov. 8 to 12) indicates a 40 to 60% chance of above normal temperatures and a 40 to 50% chance of above normal precipitation. Remember that even twice our normal rainfall isn’t much. It would need to continue to help the wheat to hang on. The eight to 14-day outlook (Nov. 10 to 16) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of below normal temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of above normal precipitation. It does appear that a new weather pattern is establishing itself and it seems at least slightly more favorable. Time will tell.
We live in a world of “the most,” “the greatest,” and “the best.” Certainly as a business and farming/ranching is a business, the goal is to maximize profits. However, too often this is confused with maximizing yields. Maximizing yields simply will not maximize profits and in facts decreases profits. The goal should be to “optimize” yields. The Law of Diminishing returns explains why as input costs will be great to maximize yields than the yield received in return. Today though, let’s focus on what to do with limited resources. This includes everything from the increased costs du to significant price increases to limiting resources such as precipitation and irrigation water and temperature extremes. What can a producer do to maximize profits in these challenging economic and climatic times?
• Part of this revolves around a producer’s outlook. We are in extreme/exceptional drought now. Is this an aberration or more what the future looks like? Should we expect the weather pattern for the foreseeable future to continue on the path of more extreme precipitation, temperature, and wind events? Long-term data and models indicate we are more than likely to continue on the pattern and even see an intensification of these extreme events. Drier dry periods coupled with wetter wet periods. Temperature extremes, especially in the summer along with more extreme winds. If you think it’s not true, then feel free to quit reading. If you accept this trend as likely continuing, what can a producer do to cope? And believe that we can adapt and survive as an industry.
• A total reexamination of practices from what we plant to when and how much we plant. Even under irrigation as depletion increases changes must happen. Readjusting yield goals to account for weather extremes. Shorter season varieties and hybrid selection. Switching to more reliable yielding crops such as grain sorghum for corn or growing more forages and leaving cattle on pasture and forages for a longer period. Lowering plant populations. Breeders working to continue to develop plants with more drought and pest resistance. Continue to explore novel crops better suited to temperature and moisture extremes.
• The list is long, however, if date and models are correct, we have no choice.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
