As of Feb. 22nd, moderate drought and a large area of severe drought envelope our area, especially Barton and Stafford Counties. The drought level increase as you head towards the northwest and southwest corners of the state, especially the southwest corner which is being enveloped in extreme drought. This combined with the extremely cold conditions is doing whet no favors. The six to ten-day outlook (March 2 to 6) indicates we can expect a 60 to 70% chance of above normal temperatures and a leaning towards a 33 to 40% of above normal precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (March 4 to 10) indicates normal temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of below normal precipitation. Please keep in mind we are in severe drought and the average precipitation in early march isn’t a deluge so at best we may keep the wheat going.
With the drought conditions in our state producers, whether wheat or other crops have some decisions to make and need a crystal ball. So what do they have to consider and how will they decide? First, let’s take a look at the long-term outlook for our area.
• March is a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures and about 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation.
• Through April and May we have equal chances of above or below normal temperatures with the precipitation outlook about the same.
This doesn’t mean it won’t rain and precipitation for April and May in our area is around six or so inches for the two months. The trouble is even slightly above normal precipitation won’t recharge surface soil moisture and especially subsoil moisture. It’s not very promising so what do producers need to make decisions on?
• Wheat producers have the biggest decisions to make, especially trying to work through the minefield of high input prices (especially fuel and nitrogen) and increasing wheat prices. Throw in uncertainty with the crisis in Ukraine and the potential effect on prices and producers are in a challenging position. Most producers apply enough nitrogen in the fall and top-dress the remainder in the spring based upon expected yield. They will evaluate the condition of the crop around now and estimate a yield. Most wheat entered winter in good to excellent condition in our area. However, drought conditions and cold spells have slowed down the wheat making it harder to evaluate condition. And if the drought conditions continue and even intensify, wheat will likely shed tillers and therefore yield. On the other hand, if soil moisture improves, most of the expected yield may still be there. So it’s a bit of a coin flip. Also, if the stand is thinner due to weather, weed control will be even more important but it will cost money but you don’t want the weeds. Factor in the increases in the value of a bushel of wheat and you can start to understand how difficult this decision is, even with crop insurance.
• Spring row crop producers are in a better position but are going to become antsy in a few weeks.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
