HAYS – The Docking Institute of Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University conducted a poll from Nov. 1 through Nov. 3 to measure respondents’ preferences in the upcoming election on Tuesday, Nov. 8. 

Results for this poll showed Donald Trump (58 percent) holds a 24-point lead over Hillary Clinton (34 percent), up from the 8-point lead showed in the Kansas Speaks survey released on Oct. 30, which had a data collection period of Sept. 1 to Oct. 13. 

“When I looked at the results I was surprised and how big of a lead Trump had compared to our Kansas Speaks poll,” said Bradley Pendergast, Docking Institute Survey Center manager. “If you remember, Romney won Kansas by 22 percent  in 2012, so I think a lot of this has to do with Kansas Republicans coming around to their party’s nominee and the resurgence of the Clinton email scandal as helps some.”

U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran (77 percent) is up 64 points from challengers Patrick Wiesner (13 percent) and Robert Garrard (10 percent) and appears to be comfortably on track to secure his seat for another six years. 

“I think most of those paying attention to Kansas politics knew that Moran was a shoe-in for reelection,” Pendergast said. “I was surprised by the margin though.”

The retention vote for five justices of the Kansas Supreme Court seems close with 40 percent of likely voters saying they will “Retain All” justices, while 25 percent say they will “Retain Some” and 24 percent saying they will “Retain None” of the Kansas Supreme Court justices up for retention. 

When broken down by each justice, the numbers show: 

• Chief Justice Lawton Nuss – 46 percent of likely voters said they would retain, while 35 percent said they would not retain, and 19 percent said they don’t know. 

• Justice Marla Luckert – 46 percent of likely voters said they would retain, while 35 percent said they would not retain, and 19 percent said they don’t know. 

• Justice Carol Beier– 46 percent of likely voters said they would retain, while 35 percent said they would not retain, and 19 percent said they don’t know. 

• Justice Daniel Biles– 46 percent of likely voters said they would retain, while 35 percent said they would not retain, and 19 percent said they don’t know. 

• Justice Caleb Stegall – 52 percent of likely voters said they would retain, while 29 percent said they would not retain, and 19 percent said they don’t know. 

“In regards to the Kansas Supreme Court, we can see that the ‘Reject All But Stegall’ campaign being championed by pro-life organizations has had some impact,” Pendergast said. “There is still 19 percent who said they don’t know, in most cases when it comes to retaining judges and voters go into the booth not knowing how they will vote, they usually vote to retain.”

The Docking Institute contacted a total of 753 Kansas residents by cellular and landline telephone, with 346 of them completing the survey. With a cooperation rate of 46 percent, and with 313 of the respondents identified as likely voters, the result is a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percent at the 95-percent confidence level. 

A margin of error of 5.5 percent means a 95-percent probability that findings among the sample vary no more than plus or minus 5.5 percent from the value that would be found if all adult Kansas residents were surveyed.