The drought monitor report as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 26 shows no real change for our area this week with the exception of extreme drought creeping into the eastern portion of the county. Drought conditions continue to worsen in eastern South Central and western Southeast Kansas to the north and east of Wichita. Much of Western Kansas is in adequate to good shape for planting wheat and that area even expanded a bit. The six to ten-day outlook (Oct. 3 to 7) indicates a continued 60 to 70% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and leans towards a 50 to 60% of above normal precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (Oct. 5 to 11) indicates a continued 50 to 70% chance of above normal temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of above normal for precipitation. The temperature outlook isn’t favorable for establishing wheat. The moisture outlook is more promising but much of the area’s soils are already dry. The worst thing to happen would be for the wheat to have enough moisture to germinate but not enough to establish a root system and tiller properly.
Our region was the epicenter over the last almost two years for a La Nina. An extremely severe and long-lived La Nina that hadn’t been experienced before and that helped account for the severity and longevity of the drought. The La Nina this summer has transitioned to an El Nino. As of now, experts are waiting to determine how intense and long-lived this El Nino will be, especially after an intense La Nina. So, what do they think?
• Normally, for Kansas, the result is milder temperatures and above average precipitation. We see more and unfortunately freezing rain. If you have lived around here over the last 30 years, you remember the several severe freezing rain events.
• This time the expert consensus for Nebraska and down through Kansas and into Oklahoma is for equal chances of both above and below normal temperatures and precipitation. Warmer in the northern third of the continental U.S. along with below normal precipitation. Above normal precipitation is concentrated to the southern third of the country and up along the east coast, near the Atlantic Ocean up through southern New England.
• This is naturally subject to change and they are hedging their bets. Not only are they waiting to see how the El Nino develops but there are other factors discussed next.
• For example, how much snowpack will there be in Siberia to help produce cold air in the Arctic? Or how will the record warm temperatures in much of the world’s seawaters impact moisture available? And there are other factors. The upshot is that models predict using the data from past events. With the changing climate heading us into unchartered waters, the reliability of long-term prediction is much less certain than normal.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
