The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, Oct. 27, indicates little change over the past two weeks. Almost half of Barton County and much of the surrounding area to the south range from moderate to severe drought. The northern third of Barton County is exceptionally dry.
The six- to 10-day forecast (Nov. 3 to 7) indicates a 33% to 50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 40% to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. The eight- to 14-day forecast (Nov. 5 to 11) indicates a 40% to 50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a continued 33% to 40% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation.
Above-average temperatures mean highs in the upper 70s, so not terrible for establishing wheat. The chance of above-normal precipitation is good news, but remember that normal for October and November here is less than 2 inches. There is still no hard frost in the near future. Wheat, especially later-planted wheat, has a decent chance to establish its root system and tillers.
It’s almost November. And while the area experienced one light frost, the forecast indicates no hard, killing frost in the near future. This has happened before in recent memory, but this year looks particularly late. What are the upsides and downsides for producers and the ecosystem overall?
For the 2027 wheat crop, the upside is that decent temperatures, a rain if it occurs, and little chance of a hard frost will allow for good root and tiller establishment. Declining daylight slows growth and is a partial key for developing winter hardiness, but it shouldn’t stop development. This is good news, especially for late-planted fields. The downside, if it remains unseasonably warm, is the chance for excessive top growth, leading to depletion of soil moisture that could be used in the spring. Another negative of the warm temperatures is greater fall pest pressure, especially from insects, and infection with certain diseases such as barley yellow dwarf. And remember that last fall was a good year for wheat establishment, and we all know what followed.
The open, decent weather is good for cattle, hopefully, including better opportunities to graze winter cereals. And some of our perennial pastures that received moisture are experiencing cool-season grass growth, which may take some pressure off supplemental forages. The caveat is not overgrazing and shorting the roots’ food reserves for the winter.
One item we will have to wait and see on is the effect of this weather on trees and native plants, along with insects and other animals. Many butterflies have emerged, but will they have time to mate and lay eggs for winter? Most trees are holding onto their leaves longer. If this weather continues, will it damage next year’s buds? Some plants, like spiderwort and yarrow, are trying to bloom. The effect may be minimal or significant. Time will tell.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
