The drought monitor report as of March 19 is showing a continued slight increase to abnormally dry by another three percent. Barton and the surrounding area is unchanged. The six to ten-day outlook (March 26 to 30) indicates a 50 to 60% chance of likely below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. The eight to 14-day outlook (March 28 to April 3) indicates 30 to 40% chance of below normal temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of leaning to above normal precipitation.
Meteorological spring arrived March 1st and astronomical spring this week. Living in Kansas we all know spring here is characterized by fairly dramatic swing in temperatures and precipitation. However, over the last 20 or so years, as the effects of climate change are increasing, you may have noticed our spring weather seems more variable and extreme than in the past. Please keep in mind a warming planet doesn’t necessarily mean there aren’t cold spells. Producers of crops from alfalfa and wheat to fruit trees such as peaches and apples have noticed the change. Today, how does this more variable weather effect crop production?
• Plants and animals adapt to the average climate. We develop crop varieties and hybrids for that average. There is an important concept in biology termed synchrony; essentially it refers to organisms/events that are timed to occur together. For life, the timing of events to occur together is for the benefit of the organisms. The warming, more variable climate is leading to more occurrences of asynchrony. Asynchrony is where events normally timed or paired together are out of phase. Synchrony leads to a stable ecosystem, whether native or agricultural ecosystems. Asynchrony threatens that stability. Following are some examples for our area.
• Wheat resumes growth after winter and is keyed to flower based upon two factors: increasing daylength and warming temperatures. And wheat fits our climate as typically the most useful precipitation occurs from mid-March through June. This is when wheat is heading into its reproductive phase. This year “precipitation wise” is more “normal” than the last several years, however, our rainfall has been later. Couple this with warmer late winter-early spring temperatures, wheat is breaking dormancy earlier and into drier conditions. And the warmer conditions cause earlier development and leaves wheat more vulnerable to freeze damage after jointing when the inevitable cold day or two occurs. Also, the abrupt change from the mid-70s to below 20 degrees we just experienced also favors damage.
• Another example, with warmer weather, alfalfa is greening up earlier and insects such as the alfalfa weevil larva and pea aphid are becoming active earlier. However, the insects that prey on them are not and often necessitates more frequent spraying until natural enemies emerge.
• Fruit trees are breaking dormancy and flowering earlier. Many of them, especially peach trees abort their blossoms with a freeze and won’t produce fruit. Some, like apples, bloom before the pollinators are out and really active and this can cause less fruit.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
