The drought monitor, as of Tuesday, March 17, indicates an increase in drought conditions with much of the southern third of the state. Barton County is now in abnormally dry conditions as are Pawnee and Rice Counties. Stafford County is in moderate drought. Conditions will likely deteriorate further with the long-range outlook.
The six- to 10-day forecast (March 24-28) indicates a 70-80% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a 50-60% of likely below normal for precipitation. The eight- to 14-day forecast indicates (March 26 to April 1) indicates a 70-80% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a 33-40% chance of leaning below normal for precipitation. Definitely not what we needing heading into April with the wheat crop and needing moisture to plant corn.
Many items of ag interest have happened over the last month or so. Today, rather than a single topic, some observations of what has and is happening relating to agriculture.
• After a period of decent rainfall, the spigot has turned off and the outlook over the next several weeks isn’t good. Below normal precipitation and an extremely strong chance of above normal temperatures is exactly what we don’t need. Several months prior the state was totally out of dry conditions. Today, less than half the state, mostly the center, is in good shape. On the plus side, there was overall decent soil and subsoil moisture heading into now. On the negative side, with a blip or two, we have seen an extremely mild winter with the growth of wheat ahead of schedule. Trees, perennials, and other native plants are also ahead of where they should be. To compound matters, a moderate to strong El Nino appears to be building. For wheat, the recent cold snap may have hurt tillers’ growing points if wheat had jointed. If not jointed, tillers are likely okay. This heat will expose potential developing head damage pretty quickly.
• While not as widespread as in some years, the recent wildfires caused significant damage to some structures and stored feed for cattle along with some cattle death loss. Pastures should recover but monitoring stocking rates is advised. And the outlook means a strong possibility for more and significant wildfires.
• The war in Iran will negative affect producers in several ways. Losing 20% of the world’s oil supply along with liquified natural gas will not only spike transportation costs and what producers pay for fuel but increase the cost of foodstuffs for consumers. High gas prices certainly hits the pocketbooks of consumers but of even more concern is the price of diesel is of even greater concern since almost everything is transported using diesel for fuel. And high energy prices mean a significant increase in nitrogen fertilizer prices just when producers are ramping up for spring planting. And the middle east also supplies fertilizers to the world. The only positive of the large increase in crude oil prices is there has been an increase in the prices producers receive for grain crops and soybeans.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
