As of Tuesday, Dec. 20, the Drought Monitor shows little change. We are still in extreme drought with exceptional drought nearby to the south and west. The little snow we had will make little difference. It will be interesting to see how this last severe cold snap combined with our dry soils hurts the wheat growing points below the ground. This weather, the ups and downs, is hard on cattle and producers are keeping an eye out for respiratory diseases. The six-to-ten-day weather outlook (Dec. 27 – 31) indicates a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures and a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation. The eight-to-14-day outlook (Dec. 29 to Jan. 4) indicates a 50 -60% chance of above normal temperatures and a 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation. We shall see.
Last week’s column discussed some of the top ag stories of 2022, This week, what are the likely top stories for 2023.
• Hardly a surprise, but the weather outlook for the 2023 growing season looms large. Will this La Nina finally weaken? Will we return to a more normal weather pattern or is an El Nino on the horizon? Will the extremes in temperature, moisture, winds, and storms continue?
• This ties into the first bullet point. The ongoing shortage of surface and ground water for a large portion of the country, especially west of the Mississippi River. Dealing with this crisis impacts not only agriculture but urban areas (think Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas) and the fight between those two entities for water, but also our relations with Mexico. And we can’t forget the ongoing drought and famine in parts of Africa and Asia or the severe flooding in other parts of the world.
• The ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine will continue to affect world food, energy, and fertilizer supplies. We live in a world ag, energy, and fertilizer economy, not to mention equipment and technology. Not to mention the possibility of a widening war that could further effect world fuel and food supplies.
• While inflation has eased a bit the latter half of 2022, this will continue to be a challenge for producers and consumers. Much lower fossil fuels prices will help, however, events in the Ukraine may cause dramatic increases in oil and gas.
• As odd as it may sound after three years of COVID, the effects of COVID in China. Without going into all the details, the Chinese government has dramatically changed its zero COVID policy while still not allowing in overseas vaccines. Predictions are for potentially millions of deaths and tens of millions serious illnesses. Aside from the harm to the Chinese people, this will likely disrupt supply chains among other things.
• Finally, work for the next Farm Bill will highlight the incoming Congress. With a change in the majority for the House, how contentious will negotiations be between the two parties and White House.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year to all.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
