As of Dec. 2nd the Drought Monitor shows our area as unchanged with just some abnormally dry conditions to the north/northeast of Great Bend. However, severe and extreme drought are moving in and starting to expand. The weather outlook holds little hope for moisture and these warm temperatures will continue to exacerbate dry soil conditions. The six to ten-day outlook (Dec. 8 to 12) indicates we are predicted to be 40% to 50% above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation (which isn’t much). The eight to 14-day outlook (Dec. 10 to 16) indicates we have a 50% to 70% chance of above normal temperatures and a 30% to 40 % chance of below normal precipitation. Not promising for the 2022 wheat crop.

Today, the harvest of 2021 row crops is pretty well wrapped up and while there was a bit of wheat planted around Thanksgiving, wheat planting was pretty much done by the end of October. So how does the 2022 wheat crop look currently and where are we headed with it?

In our area, most wheat was planted in a timely fashion and with adequate moisture for establishment. Temperatures have been normal to above normal and we didn’t have a hard freeze until well into November. Timely planted wheat is tillering well and has adequate growth. In fact, some fields have grown too well. Even wheat that was planted into November has emerged and is staring to tiller. Overall, this is probably the best looking wheat crop this area has had in quite a while for this time of year. We did have some serious insect pressure on early planted wheat that often required spraying. Those wishing to graze cattle have good wheat and rye pasture. So overall, this is a pretty good start to the 2022 wheat crop. So what are the potential problems?

• The wheat needs moisture, especially if we stay with at or above normal temperatures. While the drought monitor indicates adequate moisture in most of our area for now, it is decreasing and will continue to do so, especially if the wheat keeps growing. Dry soil leads to two problems.

• If we don’t receive moisture, the wheat crop will struggle coming out of dormancy. This presents an even bigger problem with pests such as cutworm. Actively growing wheat with good conditions can outgrow the damage. Stressed wheat usually struggles and may not even be able to green up. While the fall growth and tillering is good, it can be too much of a good thing and further deplete soil moisture need for spring growth.

• Dry soil temperatures fluctuate more than moist soil. While the growing point for wheat is below the soil surface (normally about an inch or so deep) until spring and more protected, an extended period of cold without snow cover can result in a greater likelihood of winter kill/damage to the growing point. And moisture stressed wheat plants are more susceptible to cold damage.

There is no reason to panic yet but if anyone knows a good rain dance, now would be a good time to try it.

Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.