The following timeline provides insight on Kansas fuel prices from 2005 to present:
• 2005: Kansas motorists experienced $3 fuel for the first time Sept. 3 following Hurricane Katrina, which tugged the price of crude oil to a then all-time high above $70 per barrel.
• 2006: Tensions over the Iran nuclear program caused Kansas retail prices to revisit the $3 mark, on August 4.
• 2007: Limited domestic supplies and strong demand pushed the price of crude oil above $90, and Kansas retail prices above $3 again on May 9.
• 2008: Market speculation drove the price of crude oil to more than $140 per barrel, an all-time high price for the commodity. Retail prices followed suit, as record high prices were achieved in the state ($4.02 on July 16) and across the country. By year’s end, the recession was underway resulting in retail prices falling to a five-year low. The Kansas average on New Year’s Eve, 2008, was $1.53 and has never been lower since.
• 2009: After falling to the five-year low in the $1.60 range, prices gradually moved back to the mid $2 range. The last time gas was under $2 was on May 5.
• 2010: Modest domestic and global economic recovery continued to fuel the recovery of crude and retail prices. The year began and ended with Kansas prices in the mid and high $2 range, respectively.
• 2011: Unrest in North Africa and the Middle East and market speculation pushed Kansas fuel prices to a near three-year high.
• 2012: Geopolitical tensions at the end of 2011 buoyed crude prices north of $100 per barrel in early 2012. Consequently, the year started with a statewide average of $3.12, the most expensive start of a year on record.
• 2013: Motorists experienced a 62-cent price surge the first two months of the year thanks to high crude costs and early refinery maintenance. The statewide average has spent 192 days – or 74 percent – of the year to date at or above $3.50 per gallon.
It should be more treat than trick at the gas pump as we approach Halloween, petroleum analysts believe.
“While past performance is never an absolute indicator of future price positions, a review of recent history gives us good reason to expect prices to fall between now and Halloween, by between 20-to-25 cents per gallon,” says Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst, GasBuddy.
“When we looked at prices from 9/19 through Oct. 31 – for a five-year period – it became clear that the numbers were skewed because of the extraordinary plunge gas prices took in 2008 when they moved from the record peak ($4.12) in July to the record low ($1.61) by year’s end. In 2008 the price from Sept. 19 to Oct. 31 plummeted by $1.28 per gallon. We’re expecting a much tamer decrease this year,” he said.
From Sept. 19 to Halloween, the U.S. average price has fallen by an average of 28 cents per gallon over the past five years. “But we’re leaning closer to the 10-year average, which is 23 cents per gallon,” DeHaan noted.
“Retail gas prices during this period actually increased in 4 of the past 10 years, but barring a hurricane or sudden turbulence in the Middle East, we’re confident that most metro markets across the U.S. will see their prices fall in this 20-to-25 cent range,” said Gregg Laskoski, another GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst.
The national average price of gasoline will surpass $3 per gallon tomorrow for the 1,000th consecutive day for the first time on record.
Small consolation
The nationwide average has broken the $3 since Dec. 23, 2010. The current $3 fuel streak for Kansas started Jan. 12, 2011 – or 979 days ago. In 21 days – or on Oct. 7 – the Kansas average will have spent 1,000 consecutive days above $3.00 per gallon.
“Kansas’s fuel average hasn’t been above $3.00 per gallon quite as long as the national fuel average,” said James R. Hanni, Executive Vice President, public affairs for AAA Allied Group. “We’re on track to reach this milestone three weeks from today.
“The reality is that expensive gas is here to stay, which is a hard pill to swallow considering that most Americans rely heavily on their car to live their lives,” said Hanni. “As an advocacy organization representing the motoring public, AAA believes that this is an issue that our leaders need to address through policy that promotes alternative energy while stimulating production, limiting price volatility and ensuring greater efficiency.”
The average U.S. household in 2012 spent $2,912 on gasoline, or just under four percent of income before taxes, according to the Energy Information Administration.
