The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, Sept. 1, indicates a continued backwards slide into worse conditions. Almost all of Barton County and much of the surrounding are now in moderate/severe drought with more and most of Stafford and Rice Counties in severe drought. The northeastern third of the state is in good shape as is a small area of the northwest. The six-to-10-day forecast (Sept. 8-12) indicates a 70-90% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and 33-50% of leaning above near normal for precipitation. The eight-to-14-day forecast (Sept. 10-16) indicates a 60-80% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and near normal to leaning a bit above normal for precipitation.

It seems there is a great deal of confusion with the public and many politicians (on both sides) regarding food prices, markets, and how to address the problem. Briefly, let’s take a look at each challenge.

• Producers have faced challenges for several years which we have discussed before. For crop producers, overproduction hampers prices leading to oversupply (which is somewhat improving). Tariff policies, high fuel prices, the war in Ukraine, and now the war in Iran, along with other factors mean much higher input costs. Add in weather extremes from floods to drought along with extreme temperatures depending where you are at and what they have to sell their production at to break even is often above the sale price. Cattle producers would love to increase herd size but the drought limits pasture and forage in cattle country. And to build the herd, they have to keep heifers back and hold on to producing cows. And it takes time from starting to rebuild a herd to when it can hit the shelves. Milk prices are low but the value of calves, which helps them make money, means they aren’t cutting production to improve milk prices. Add in the turmoil of export markets with all that’s happening in the world. They would rather have higher prices for their commodities than government payments, but the payments are necessary to at least stay afloat.
• Economically, inflation, again due to several interwoven factors, hurts demand. As prices increase for food, fiber, and fuel purchases, demand decreases. Higher prices should mean increased supply but weather factors, time to produce living organisms, and the costs of production make this difficult. True market competition is theoretically self-correcting as higher prices should decrease demand while supply would increase causing over time a return to where supply would equal demand. The inverse if true of lower prices.
• Finally, the politics, regardless of party, are dicey. Consumers want lower prices. Producers and processors want high prices. Politicians want happy voters. Importing beef at a lower price will do little in the long run to lower prices and will hurt American producers. Neither producer nor consumer will really benefit. The government setting artificial floors or ceilings for prices doesn’t solve the problem but really exacerbates it. Letting the market play out while protecting against market manipulation is the best answer but a painful one for producers and consumers.

Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.