With one snow already under our belts, Barton County officials aren’t waiting for the next winter blast to start prepping for the upcoming season. 

Road and Bridge Department crews went out this past Monday and treated bridges, curves and other problem areas, County Works Director Darren Williams said. They also plan on doing snow training on Nov. 1 and 2.

“We go around and check equipment such as snow plows and sand spreaders and make sure everything is in working order,” he said. They will watch training videos and go over their routes.

“We have a few new employees and this is beneficial to them and a refresher course for the others,” he said. During the winter months, plows are mounted on trucks on Fridays just in case a storm comes up.

Emergency Management Director Amy Miller said she is working on reviewing and updating contact numbers for individuals and agencies to make sure she have the best available information. She is also considering a workshop to review and discuss plans and policies specific for cold weather events.

“I think everyone needs to think about being as prepared as possible as individuals, families and communities,” Miller said. “Watching the devastation from Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael reminds me that individuals should prepare to be self-sufficient for a minimum of 72 to 96 hours before outside help arrives.”   

This preparation comes as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts there is about a 30-40 percent chance that conditions will be higher than normal and about a 50-50 chance things will be wetter than normal this winter in Kansas.

In the forecast released Thursday by the agency’s Climate Prediction Center, a mild winter could be in store for much of the United States. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses in the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.

Temperature

“With temperatures forecast to be warmer than normal I will be monitoring drought conditions, as strange as that may sound,” Miller said.  But with the rains in August and again last week, there will probably be a lot of growth in brush, pastures and trees. 

In turn that may create some excellent conditions for wildland fires if there is not enough moisture through the winter months. 

Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.

Precipitation

Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Drought

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.  

Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on Nov. 15.