H. R. McMaster, President Trump’s second National Security Advisor (who followed the historically short-serving and now-indicted Michael Flynn), is set to resign his post at the beginning of next month. Soon to be in his place is someone far less qualified - and far more dangerous.
It is perversely fitting that only days after the 15th anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq War, John Bolton will return to the White House. Bolton first served during President George W. Bush’s administration as Undersecretary of State for Arms Control. In this role, he was instrumental in laying the groundwork for the invasion. He alleged a literal connection between ‘Axis of Evil’ countries Iran, Iraq, and North Korea; derided allies and insisted that the United States could go it alone in the conflict; and ultimately played a leading role in politicizing the intelligence that would ultimately justify the war.
Bolton has learned little to nothing from spearheading that disastrous conflict. He is a champion of regime change in Iran, insisting that negotiations - including the agreement currently preventing a nuclear weapon in Tehran - are a fruitless effort. Instead, he has claimed time and again that bombing Iran’s nuclear sites is the right path forward. Strangely, he never articulates what would happen when such strikes empower radicals in the regime to seize control, drive Iran’s nuclear infrastructure further underground, or lead to asymmetric retaliation against, say, our allies in the region or oil shipping in the Persian Gulf.
But Bolton’s tragically shortsighted opinions about U.S. foreign policy extend beyond the Middle East. Recently, on the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal and the airwaves of Fox News, he has emerged as a leading proponent of a preemptive strike on North Korea. Here again, Bolton demands full on regime change rather than a (still poorly reasoned) limited, ‘bloody nose’ strike; he crafts his arguments based on faulty reasoning, wishful thinking, and a borderline sociopathic lack of care for the lives - of civilians and U.S. military personnel alike - that would be lost in the process.
Unfortunately, all of these alarming traits - an overreliance on force, carelessness in judgment, and disdain of the rest of the world - make Bolton a perfect fit for the Trump Administration. Still, there may be things about him that even the president could find less than appealing.
For one thing, adding someone as notoriously difficult to work with as Bolton is a risk given the infighting and personnel problems that already plague this administration. Bolton was a terror in the Bush Administration; one civil servant testified before Congress that he threatened colleagues’ careers, and a contractor described him haranguing and storming after her for weeks at a time. These accounts ultimately sank his confirmation before a Senate committee, but his temperament problems could be an issue for President Trump - especially if Bolton clashes with Secretary of Defense James Mattis, as many expect him to.
Still, bullying and blustering are permitted, if not encouraged, by President Trump - but dissent is less often allowed. Bolton has been a vocal opponent of the administration’s North Korea strategy, casting it as overly generous at best. And of course, as explored above, he is a chief architect of a war that President Trump (falsely) campaigned on opposing. Multiple members of the Trump cabinet - Tillerson, McMaster, and Cohn among the most recently departed - have departed due to their public disagreements embarrassing the president; Bolton could well meet the same fate.
And last but most relevant, Bolton’s appointment could threaten that which President Trump holds most dear: the adoration of his base. For now, the MAGA crowd is enjoying the meltdown on the left and the hand-wringing of the establishment that the Bolton announcement has wrought. But what happens when the America First president stumbles into one or more new wars, costing American blood and treasure? President Trump could find Bolton a liability when it comes to voters who expect his attention and their tax dollars focused here at home - voters who will be essential to any hope of holding Congress in November and the White House in 2020.
President Trump may have a few reasons to dislike John Bolton, but the rest of us have many more. His could prove to be one of the more catastrophic appointments of an already devastating administration - so here’s hoping that he will embarrass or enrage the president quickly enough to flame out before doing serious damage.
Graham F. West is the Communications Director for Truman Center for National Policy and Truman National Security Project, though views expressed here are his own. You can reach West at gwest@trumancnp.org.
