TOPEKA – On Friday, Secretary of State Scott Schwab announced the voter turnout prediction for the Aug. 2 primary  election. Secretary Schwab predicts roughly 36% of Kansas voters will participate in the 2022 primary election. 

The prediction is based on several factors including historical turnout data, advance voting data, the number of registered voters in Kansas, and competitive races driving turnout. The Secretary of State’s office acknowledges the constitutional amendment known as “Value Them Both” on the ballot has increased voter interest in the election.

• Historical Turnout Data – In 2020, roughly 636,032, or 34.2%, of registered voters participated in the primary election. In 2018, roughly 487,598, or 27.1%, of registered voters participated in the primary election.

• Advance by Mail Voting Data – As of Friday, there have been 119,960 advance mail ballots sent to Kansas voters who applied for a ballot. Comparatively, 314,788 advance by mail ballots were mailed during the same period in the 2020 primary election and 51,211 advance by mail ballots during the 2018 primary election. To date, 60,198 advance mail ballots have been returned to county election offices, compared to 159,012 in the 2020 primary election and 26,917 in the 2018 primary election. The party affiliation of the returned advance mail ballots are as follows: 26,986 Democrat; 25,644 Republican; 282 Libertarian; and 7,286 unaffiliated.

• Advance In-Person Voting Data – As of Friday, 128,600 advance in-person votes have been cast. Of those, 49,679 were by registered Democrats; 59,253 by registered Republicans; 643 by registered Libertarians; and 19,025 by registered unaffiliated voters. For the 2020 primary election, 30,762 advance in-person ballots were cast. For the 2018 primary election, 40,406 advance in-person ballots were cast.

• Registered Kansas Voters – Unofficial numbers report there are approximately 1,950,971 million registered Kansas voters. Approximately 44% of Kansans are registered with the Republican Party, while nearly 26% are registered with the Democratic Party. It is important to note that 29% of registered voters in Kansas are unaffiliated with a political party but are eligible to vote on the constitutional amendment and any applicable non-partisan races in their county. 

“This voter turnout prediction is based on 2018 data because we have similar races on the ballot this year, while also keeping in mind we have a constitutional amendment driving voter interest,” said Schwab. “I encourage those who have not yet voted to do so on Election Day, Aug. 2.”